The 50 random bots buy and sell by coin flip. They show what luck alone can do. With 5 bots in the running, about 0 will beat the luck line by chance even if no strategy works. If the count above is close to that number, treat the "winners" as noise.
The confirmation check starts in about 113 days. At that point the report picks the top bots from the first 120 days and tracks whether they keep winning afterwards. Only bots that pass this check are worth considering for real money.
None yet.
Spookvanger is Alvin Fortune's ghost-catcher from The Red Paper Fox, built for real. Like in the book, it never trades. It watches the live order book and every trade, and flags patterns: ghost walls, trading too neat to be people, and falls that are smooth (built) rather than jagged (real fear). Nothing counts until it shows up twice in a row. A flag is a pattern, not proof that anyone did anything wrong.
| Squad | Bots | Median return | Best | Trades | What they do |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin's squad | 20 | +0.0% | +0.1% | 0 | normal strategies that won't buy while Spookvanger sees ghosts |
| Same strategies, no radar | 560 | -0.4% | +2.6% | 2905 | the comparison group |
| The Fox squad | 20 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | Maria's rule: buy real (jagged) fear, checked twice |
| Coin-flip bots | 50 | -0.9% | +3.1% | 384 | luck |
| Coin | Ghost walls | Too neat | Smooth falls | Real fear |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA/USD | 9 | 103 | 0 | 57 |
| BTC/USD | 9 | 74 | 0 | 1 |
| ETH/USD | 9 | 82 | 0 | 2 |
| SOL/USD | 66 | 78 | 0 | 10 |
| XRP/USD | 9 | 91 | 0 | 24 |
The same kind of price bots, with and without a filter that blocks buying on bad news, a gloomy crowd, extreme greed or overcrowded longs. "-" means no filter.
| Filter | Bots | Median return | Best | Share in profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | 560 | -0.4% | +2.6% | 21% |
| fng_veto | 50 | -0.2% | +1.0% | 24% |
| funding_veto | 50 | -0.5% | +1.0% | 20% |
| news_veto | 50 | -0.6% | +0.7% | 12% |
| social_veto | 50 | -0.6% | +1.1% | 22% |
| spook_veto | 20 | +0.0% | +0.1% | 5% |
| Strategy | Bots | Median return | Best | Share in profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bollinger | 112 | +0.0% | +1.2% | 21% |
| donchian | 112 | -0.2% | +1.5% | 16% |
| ema_cross | 112 | -1.4% | +2.6% | 21% |
| fear_greed | 30 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0% |
| fox | 20 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0% |
| funding | 30 | -0.5% | +1.2% | 30% |
| macd | 111 | -2.0% | +0.4% | 9% |
| momentum | 111 | -0.3% | +2.4% | 8% |
| news_sentiment | 30 | -0.0% | +1.6% | 37% |
| rsi_revert | 111 | +0.0% | +1.9% | 32% |
| sma_cross | 111 | -1.0% | +2.6% | 32% |
| social_hype | 30 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0% |
| social_mood | 30 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0% |
ETH/USD: +2.4% · BTC/USD: +3.3% · ADA/USD: +7.2% · XRP/USD: +1.3% · SOL/USD: +0.6%
| Bot | Strategy | Filter | Coin | Candle | Settings | Stop | Take | Return | Buy & hold | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Max drawdown | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R014 | random | - | ADA/USD | 1h | {"p_enter": 0.05, "p_exit": 0.05} | - | - | +3.1% | +6.6% | 5 | 80% | 15.33 | +1.5% | 8.19 |
| B0481 | sma_cross | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"fast": 30, "slow": 100} | - | - | +2.6% | +6.6% | 0 | +2.2% | 2.82 | ||
| B0206 | sma_cross | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"fast": 30, "slow": 100} | - | 20% | +2.6% | +6.6% | 0 | +2.2% | 2.82 | ||
| B0490 | ema_cross | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"fast": 30, "slow": 200} | - | - | +2.6% | +6.6% | 0 | +2.2% | 2.82 | ||
| B0597 | sma_cross | - | XRP/USD | 4h | {"fast": 20, "slow": 150} | 2% | 5% | +2.4% | +0.5% | 1 | 100% | ∞ | +2.2% | 9.97 |
| B0370 | momentum | - | XRP/USD | 4h | {"lookback": 100, "threshold": 0.0} | 2% | 5% | +2.4% | +0.5% | 1 | 100% | ∞ | +2.2% | 9.97 |
| B0702 | ema_cross | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"fast": 5, "slow": 100} | 2% | 5% | +2.3% | +6.6% | 1 | 100% | ∞ | +3.0% | 5.02 |
| B0263 | ema_cross | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"fast": 30, "slow": 50} | 5% | 20% | +2.1% | +6.6% | 0 | +1.8% | 2.80 | ||
| B0399 | rsi_revert | - | ADA/USD | 15m | {"period": 14, "buy_below": 30, "sell_above": 75} | - | 5% | +1.9% | +6.3% | 3 | 100% | ∞ | +1.5% | 10.10 |
| B0254 | sma_cross | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"fast": 50, "slow": 200} | 5% | 10% | +1.9% | +6.6% | 1 | 100% | ∞ | +1.8% | 2.80 |
| B0275 | rsi_revert | - | ADA/USD | 1h | {"period": 21, "buy_below": 35, "sell_above": 55} | 2% | 5% | +1.7% | +6.6% | 1 | 100% | ∞ | +2.9% | 6.18 |
| B0543 | sma_cross | - | BTC/USD | 4h | {"fast": 30, "slow": 150} | 2% | 20% | +1.6% | +2.5% | 0 | +2.0% | 5.72 | ||
| B0387 | sma_cross | - | BTC/USD | 4h | {"fast": 5, "slow": 150} | 2% | 5% | +1.6% | +2.5% | 0 | +2.0% | 5.72 | ||
| B0555 | sma_cross | - | BTC/USD | 4h | {"fast": 20, "slow": 100} | 2% | 20% | +1.6% | +2.5% | 0 | +2.0% | 5.72 | ||
| B0211 | ema_cross | - | BTC/USD | 4h | {"fast": 5, "slow": 200} | 2% | 10% | +1.6% | +2.5% | 0 | +2.0% | 5.72 | ||
| B0734 | sma_cross | - | BTC/USD | 4h | {"fast": 30, "slow": 150} | 2% | 5% | +1.6% | +2.5% | 0 | +2.0% | 5.72 | ||
| B0656 | ema_cross | - | BTC/USD | 4h | {"fast": 30, "slow": 100} | 2% | 5% | +1.6% | +2.5% | 0 | +2.0% | 5.72 | ||
| D113 | news_sentiment | - | ADA/USD | 1h | {"buy_above": 0.1, "sell_below": 0.0} | 5% | 20% | +1.6% | +6.6% | 0 | +1.8% | 1.69 | ||
| B0677 | donchian | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"entry": 40, "exit": 10} | 2% | 20% | +1.5% | +6.6% | 0 | +0.9% | |||
| B0584 | donchian | - | ADA/USD | 1h | {"entry": 40, "exit": 30} | - | - | +1.5% | +6.6% | 0 | +1.0% | -7.35 | ||
| B0715 | ema_cross | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"fast": 8, "slow": 50} | 2% | - | +1.5% | +6.6% | 1 | 0% | 0.00 | +5.2% | -2.32 |
| D023 | news_sentiment | - | ADA/USD | 15m | {"buy_above": 0.1, "sell_below": -0.1} | 5% | 10% | +1.4% | +6.3% | 0 | +1.8% | 3.48 | ||
| B0552 | donchian | - | ADA/USD | 15m | {"entry": 100, "exit": 30} | 2% | 20% | +1.2% | +6.3% | 2 | 0% | 0.00 | +2.7% | -1.13 |
| B0701 | donchian | - | ADA/USD | 15m | {"entry": 100, "exit": 30} | 2% | - | +1.2% | +6.3% | 2 | 0% | 0.00 | +2.7% | -1.13 |
| B0368 | bollinger | - | ADA/USD | 4h | {"period": 30, "k": 1.5} | - | - | +1.2% | +6.6% | 2 | 100% | ∞ | +1.5% | 7.44 |
The full list of all bots is in the CSV file next to this report.
Red means no fresh data for over 3 hours. Bots that depend on a source that isn't working just hold and don't trade.
| Source | Last success | Items collected | Last problem |
|---|---|---|---|
| fear_greed | 5 min ago | 176 | |
| funding | 1 min ago | 6710 | 503 Server Error: Service Unavailable for url: https://futures.kraken.com/derivatives/api/v3/tickers (93.5 h ago) |
| news:bitcoinmagazine.com | 4 min ago | 44 | |
| news:coindesk.com | 4 min ago | 85 | |
| news:cointelegraph.com | 4 min ago | 115 | |
| news:cryptoslate.com | 4 min ago | 118 | |
| news:decrypt.co | 4 min ago | 77 | |
| news:theblock.co | 4 min ago | 45 | |
| price_stream | 34.6 h ago | 0 | no close frame received or sent (34.6 h ago) |
| never | 0 | r/cardano: 403 Client Error: Blocked for url: https://www.reddit.com/r/cardano/new.json?limit=100&raw_json=1 (6 min ago) | |
| valr | 0 min ago | 289705 | HTTPSConnectionPool(host='api.valr.com', port=443): Max retries exceeded with url: /v1/public/marketsummary (Caused by C (31.4 h ago) |